Ambassador David Welch Draws a Lively Crowd at DACOR-BACON House
by Maria Stephan (F'02 PhD'05)
Ambassador David WelchOn April 23rd, Ambassador David Welch (F ‘77) spoke before an attentive Fletcher alumni audience at the historic DACOR-Bacon House about “Policy Challenges and Opportunities in the Middle East.” The event, hosted by the Fletcher DC Alumni Association, marked the first time that Ambassador Welch has spoken publicly about his role as US Assistant Secretary of State for Near East Affairs since leaving the government and joining Bechtel, a privately-held engineering and construction firm, as President of its Europe/Africa/Middle East/Southwest Asia region. Ambassador Welch, who received the distinction of Career Ambassador, the highest rank in the U.S. Foreign Service in June 2008, was introduced by Zaid A. Zaid (F ‘99), the chair of the Fletcher DC Alumni Association.
Ambassador Welch began by emphasizing the importance of building and maintaining a strong professional diplomatic corps in the United States, then launched into a broad and sweeping assessment of the Middle East region. Although one often hears that the region is dominated by violence, extremism, poverty, and backwardness, Welch insisted, “This is not the Middle East I know.” The region is characterized by tremendous diversity and heterogeneity. There has been remarkable political continuity in the region and an increasing number of elections – though Welch noted that not all have been free and fair.
The youth bulge in the region is frequently cited as a potential source of regional instability. However, when discussing “opportunities” Welch suggested that the large number of Middle Eastern youth, coupled with an increase in regional trade, is actually an economic asset. A “communications revolution” and the proliferation of satellite TV stations throughout the Middle East, he noted, has loosened regimes’ control over information and, ultimately, helped open up societies throughout the region. Welch further noted the large numbers of students, e.g., from Libya and Saudi Arabia, now studying at US universities as a positive development; on the flip side, not a single country in the Middle East ranks in the top 20 destinations for US college students. “So who are the isolated and uninformed?” Ambassador Welch asked the audience with a note of irony.
The distinguished Fletcher alumnus, who served as Ambassador to Egypt from 2001-2005 before rising to one of the highest posts at the State Department, later turned to the “crisis spots” in the Middle East. Reflecting on his role as US envoy to the “Quartet” (US, EU, UN, Russia) and a representative to the Annapolis peace conference, Welch said that it is important to have a “realistic sense of the importance of the [Israeli-Palestinian conflict]” and that a goal-oriented focus on a two-state solution should guide US policy. On Iran, Welch noted that many Arab countries “are fearful of Persian hegemony…while Israel fears a messianic nuclear-armed state.” Welch said that he did not know what the Obama administration’s policy towards Iran would be, though he predicted that there would be support from both Democrats and Republicans on pursuing purposeful engagement with Iran. Referring to Iraq, Welch said that Iraq “won’t come out as great as some thought, and won’t come out as bad as others thought.” Iraq “will not be like Morocco or Jordan” but instead, he noted, the country will be “more nationalistic and religious” and may pursue policies at odds with US positions.
During a lively question and answer session, Ambassador Welch responded tongue-in-cheek to a question about his greatest accomplishment. “Surviving,” he said. Welch went on to mention some positive achievements in places like Libya, Lebanon, and Iraq, and said that the Annapolis conference – the first Israeli-Palestinian peace talks hosted by the US – was a step in the right direction.
In response to a question about what the State Department could do differently to improve its effectiveness, Ambassador Welch emphasized the need to improve the inter-agency process, which he said was a perennial objective of American administrations but still needs work. The “real challenge”, he said, is to “give leaders options that they can debate and discuss openly and honestly” in order to reach the best policy decisions. A major strength of the civil servants and Foreign Service officers at the State Department, Welch said, is their deep understanding of country situations and contingencies - “the reality works in our favor and we should use this knowledge and expertise.”
On questions related to elections and democratic development in the region, Welch asked “why should we treat elections in this part of the world any differently [from other parts of the world]? Why must we like those who are elected?” Welch said that there may be valid reasons to hold fast to requirements of parties, citing Hamas as an example, notwithstanding their gains in elections. The US government should not exclude the possibility that Hamas could change its policies, Welch said, in the same way that the PLO eventually renounced violence and accepted Israel. As for US support for local democratic and democratic development in the region, Welch said that it is important that US policymakers know what they are trying to achieve and then determine whether their approach is working. The US should demonstrate that it cares about local democratic aspirations in the Middle East, he said, but should be pragmatic about examining its effectiveness and measure to with respect to what it hopes to achieve.
Maria Stephan, Fletcher DC Alumni Club Programs co-chair, closed the evening by thanking Ambassador Welch for his remarks and offering him a snazzy Fletcher tie, courtesy of the Fletcher Office of Alumni and External Relations, as a token of our appreciation.
Close to 50 Fletcher alumni, including Kenneth Button and Steve Beck (F’ 70s), Jim Williams (F ‘88), Jane Kang, Spencer Abbot, William Lawrence, and Anna Balogh (F’90s), Kimberly Barry, Dorothy Ngutter, Walid Chamoun, Kevin Book, Daniel Benaim, and John Moore (F ‘00s), enjoyed a hearty buffet prepared by DACOR’s in-house catering staff, featuring crowd-pleasing vegetable spring rolls, mini-quiches, and crab cakes. Alumni noted afterwards that the venue (DACOR House) was lovely, the food was great, the conversation with Ambassador Welch was enlightening, and the chance to mingle with fellow alumni was priceless.